A few weeks ago ICv2 announced the launch of ICv2 Insider Talks 2020. This would normally be held at New York Comic Con, and they’d reveal the state of pop culture, bring in insider guests to talk numbers, and pros and retailers would interact for a set time. Obviously the pandemic made this an online affair only, so the numbers for Comics and Graphic Novels were revealed like that instead of in person this past Thursday.
And despite a downturn between March and May, manga seems like it’s going to break last year’s numbers…with still two more months to go.
This write-up will be manga-focused, but I do have some thoughts on a few interesting points brought up overall towards the end of this post.
ICv2 Comics Track Livestream
ICv2 Chief Executive Officer Milton Griepp led this session, and he gave an overview of 2019 (which was a record year for Comics/Graphic Novels), COVID-19’s impact on the North American market, and a few questions regarding what certain companies or independent stores will be doing in 2021 as they continue to deal with the pandemic’s impact.
First, so you know how ICv2 is getting their numbers on what’s doing well or not, they shared it before the start of the session:
- NPD Bookscan
- ComicHub Point of Sale (POS), which is used by nearly 100 stores
- Interviews
- Public statements
- Financial reports by publicly traded companies
- Annual numbers in collaboration with Comichron
So to emphasize, yes, graphic novels were pretty big in 2019. Notable trends: kids graphic novels were up 43% in the book channel (chain bookstores and online retailers) and 89% in the comic stores, manga was up 26% in the book channel and 72% in comic stores. Big driver was of course Kohei Horikoshi’s My Hero Academia as the superhero theme is a big appeal.
The top three largest content categories for 2019 was:
- Kids graphic novels
- Manga
- Superheroes
Griepp then overall went into how COVID-19 impacted comic stores, as the shutdowns sent the numbers well into the red in Q1 (for graphic novels it was down 1.5%), Diamond’s shutdown — remember, they didn’t ship new products in April and May — and how distributors released works at a reduced level. Comic stores, based on ComicHub POS, were impacted well into the summer:
- Comics down 37%
- Non-manga graphic novels down 18%
- Manga down 8%
So between May and August, sales for comics and graphic novels were down by 29%. Note that this is because people were not (and especially weren’t able to in certain states) going to the actual stores.
For the summer 2020 numbers, manga went up in both comic stores and the book channel. ICv2 released the Spring 2020 Top Manga Franchises list a few months ago, now here’s their Summer 2020 Top Manga Franchises:
Griepp made a note on Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba, which — and since there will be an anime film hitting North America, and 100% another Demon Slayer anime coming in some form in the next couple years — the numbers for it can certainly grow by this time next year.
NPD Books Q3 c/GN Recap
The host for this session, Executive Director, Industry Analyst at The NPD Group Kristen McLean, noted that this is a most unusual year. And from this point forward, it’ll likely remain so due to so many changes (how long the pandemic lasts, Prime Day being moved, etc) that are hard to predict when comparing to other years. She also mentioned that some numbers will show that they’re up, for specific companies it might not actually be that high (response to COVID-19 a factor).
One interesting note that likely involves manga as well is eBooks. Long ago it seemed like it might’ve made a major impact in the market, but it’s not anywhere close to the degree that was imagined (like actually ending print books). The numbers bear that out:
Important to note that with two more months to go eBook sales (in green) did beat last year’s numbers, but you see it’s still pretty modest compared to print numbers. And you already know the pandemic is a driving factor for eBook sales. Otherwise, the early guess when the pandemic started was that the numbers for comics and graphic novels would be down in 2020, but it’s looking like it’s going to break another record this year for Bookscan instead!
For manga, like everything else there was a dip between March and May, but as summer hit it started to go back up, and that continues to be, as Kristen noted, a growing area in the market: “Manga is an important story for the US market. It’s one of our highest growth areas overall in all of publishing right now.”
A few things she talked about are stuff most of you are familiar with — mixed media. If there’s an anime adaptation, you’ll be looking to check out the source, and with a number of them on official streaming channels (like Hulu and Netflix), it’s one of the driving factors for manga sales.
To add to that then, you see the chart mainly lists Hulu and Netflix, right? It may imply that if anime finds itself on streaming services that serve other content aside from anime, it might be an additional driver of growth for manga.
Or it just wasn’t enough space to include them all. That could also be it!
Another note Kristen mentioned is that she’s been hearing anecdotally that new emerging readers are not just buying a manga, they’re buying the whole series. Or box sets. (This actually lines up with an interview over the summer actually.)
Also, it’s still anecdotal, but Kristen wanted to note a trend regarding fan preferences of anime (who watched the dub or sub) potentially being a factor for manga since NPD can now access streaming video-on-demand numbers. Still in its early stages though, but wanted to include that since it could actually be a relevant factor.
Otherwise, as it’s considered an emerging area for NPD — she also mentioned, again, they now have SVOD numbers so they want to understand how that impacts the buying experience — it’s hard to know the exact factors or audiences that’s doing the buying. During the Q&A session though, Kristen answered a question regarding that, and she said she ran a consumer study in 2018 for Nielsen, and came away understanding that the market:
- Skewed younger, was around the teens/20 or up age
- Skewed more female
- Skewed more diverse
So basically, manga has a variety of options for new readers, and with more female buyers that’s a big influence on sales. Online communities are also potentially factors in sales as well.
Additional thoughts overall
- Needless to say it’s hard to know what the future holds for comic stores, but Griepp noted they’ll have to make significant adjustments (more online options, stocking more graphic novels to name a few) to try and get through these times. Or in other words, they’ll have to adapt to what the customers want.
- This didn’t fit the flow of the write-up but here, have some numbers for a change for titles:
- Dog Man is just a behemoth, basically.
- And on that note, kids graphic novels clearly continues to be a driving force for sales. Juvenile fiction too. Seems like those should continue to be a target for publishers.
- Graphic novels is clearly what a lot of people want, but will independent stores be able to not only stock up enough of them, but do it so they can stay afloat against major retailers? Basically Amazon, Walmart, and Target (these last two are adding more graphic novels to their stores).
- The indie book market did what they could over the early COVID-19 period (embracing having to do new things), but Kristen noted that the census bureau data for the year came out for brick-and-mortar stores, and they were down 36% as of September. So there will be a few indie stores that will be around, but some aren’t going to make it past January at this rate.