Hundreds of movies come out each year to the theater. Some are ideas created from scratch. Many are reboots, remakes, and sequels. Still others are adaptations of a different medium. They all have their risks and rewards — they could turn out to be the next Cats or the next Avatar.
For fans of Japanese media, Western adaptations have turned out to be closer to Dolittle than to Avengers: Endgame thanks to productions like the box office bomb Dragon Ball Evolution and Netflix’s low-rated Death Note. But the last few years have featured some bright spots. Pokémon: Detective Pikachu became the highest-grossing video game adaptation, and fans of Alita: Battle Angel are launching campaigns to get a sequel.
The Hollywood production of Sonic the Hedgehog did not seem like it was going to follow in those footsteps. Sonic’s appearance was majorly panned in promo images and especially in the first trailer. But studio Paramount Pictures decided to redo Sonic, although star Jim Carrey wasn’t necessarily thrilled with the idea.
Months later, Sonic’s self-described “extremely handsome package” was met with praise despite the added price tag. While initial estimates put the according to Indiewire, the redesign cost under $5 million, as the visual effects were far from complete at the time the decision to delay the film was made.
So some people used this as proof that the initial trailer was meant to be a “fake” trailer to get attention and then reap praise by declaring a preapproved delay was actually in response to fan reaction. I still think this is ridiculous, as a) this “plan” would have to have been kept under wraps and b) they still would have already had marketing expenses with the original Sonic, even if it’s just paying graphic artists to make digital Sonic defending his human-like legs.
Still, $5 million seems rather low for the changes even if not many of the visual effects were done. Regardless, good on the executives for realizing that Sonic’s appearance was not going to work and bringing in someone well-liked in the Sonic community as the lead designer. And in response, early box office trends looked good. In January, Deadline estimated the four-day opening weekend to be over $40 million thanks to a strong showing from guys under 25.
On February 12th, the day before the Thursday previews, more estimates came filtering in. Hollywood Reporter predicted between $45 and $50 million, a little higher than Deadline’s $41 to $47 million. Box Office Pro noted that trends were approaching that of Detective Pikachu and could even break the top five President’s Day weekend debuts. This was despite the mixed reviews from critics, although it was briefly in the 70% “certified fresh” range.
But how did it actually do at the theater?
Well, first of all, audiences seemed to like the movie with a 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an A on CinemaScore. Even better, the audiences were not small; Sonic the Hedgehog surpassed its initial forecast goals. By Saturday, forecasts were that it would surpass Detective Pikachu to have the biggest opening for a video game adaptation with a haul of $55 million and a four-day holiday total of over $60 million, perhaps even $65 million. By Sunday, the movie had earned about $57 million, and with Monday’s ticket sales, the movie reached about $70 million. So significantly over the early estimates and a nice increase over later ones.
All analyses mentioned that the movie was helped by the lack of good family-friendly features at the theater. Dolittle is a box office bomb, and Onward isn’t due for a few weeks. The Harley Quinn movie was also a disappointment for Warner Brothers. That maybe helped explain the under-25 male crowd for Sonic, as although Birds of Prey opening weekend audiences ended up skewing male, perhaps men wanted to save their money to support a video game movie adaptation over another comic book movie — or perhaps because it’s a female-dominated flick. Plus, Valentine’s Day (release day) fell on a Friday, making it a part of the President’s Day four-day holiday weekend. Box Office Pro also suggests Jim Carrey’s promo tour helped boost ticket sales.
But I’m glad that people that downvoted the original trailer helped make Sonic the Hedgehog #1 on opening weekend, news which made Sonic staff very excited.
It’s also important to keep the momentum, as this helps add — or, rather, not eliminate — showings from theaters. I know I was surprised Little Women was dropped from my local 10-screen theater even before it was nominated for an Oscar for Best Picture. That means it was only there for 2 weeks despite its strong start.
Of course, Little Women probably was removed to make more room for movies like the Star Wars and Jumanji sequels, but I watched a couple leave in disappointment when they realized it wasn’t showing. Sonic the Hedgehog isn’t facing huge competition right now, but keeping it on as many screens as possible is important. At that same theater, Jumanji: The Next Level is still playing, and it’s been out for over two months. Momentum is important to keep a movie in theaters for a couple weeks or a couple of months. For myself and I’m sure other people, whether it’s still available in a few weeks or not will probably determine whether I will see Sonic or not.
So a good first weekend is great, and I am confident fans can keep supporting the movie. Between this and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, it shows that if you take a video game, make it look visually good and have a good story (perhaps with some good comedy and/or good actors), audiences will come.