Usually, in the beginning of October, I write about the start of the holiday shopping season. After all, each of the final three months of the year have popular celebrations, and those holidays lead to a lot of spending. Gifts for friends and family, decorations, weather-related clothes and merchandise, flush with cash from work bonuses — there are a lot of reasons why customers go out and spend during this time period.
According to the National Retail Federation, about 20% of all retail sales for a year happen in November or December — and higher for some places. For places like toy and jewelry stores, almost 35% of their annual sales are in the October to December period according to Statista. The number is higher for some businesses, with sales during this time period being more than the entire rest of the year combined.
As a bonus for stores, the National Retail Federation says, “In addition, holiday sales can be more profitable because the increased volume of purchases comes without significantly increasing retailers’ fixed costs of doing business.”
So for a lot of places, the end of the year can either make their business boom or lead to some very depressing times. That’s why stores need to find ways to attract your attention, and sales are one of the most popular and effective way to do that.
Whether sales will be very good this year is questionable, with inflation concerns, higher wages, and employee shortages, all of which are connected to the COVID-19 pandemic — specifically, the Delta variant.
Another factor that is causing woes for both companies and customers: shipping. Ports are heavily congested, and getting a shipment in from China can cost three or four times more.
As for domestic shipping, at the end of August, the United States Postal Service raised its rates for letters, Media Mail (the cheap shipping option for books and movies), and other services. Starting October 3rd and until December 36th, USPS is hiking prices on most other packages, including First Class Mail ($.30 more) and Priority Mail ($.25-$5).
Last holiday season, mail was swamped with delays, with packages that are advertised as being delivery in 2-3 days taking 2-3 weeks — and sometimes, more.
Even post-Christmas and New Years, the post office is still is struggling to match its on-time delivery rate from a year ago.
Another busy shipping season and supply chain issues are predicted for the 2021 holiday season.
One example a lot of you will relate with is the stocking issues with manga at both large and small retailers.
For example, Barnes & Noble lists Spy x Family volume 1 as not being available until the end of October. Want the next two volumes? Well, the chain estimates it will start shipping those on November 29th. That’s Cyber Monday, by the way, so the chances of orders being delayed further amidst the Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend is high. Heck, I can’t remember when is the last time I got something in 2 days from Amazon, and I’m a Prime member.
And speaking of Spy x Family, you can’t even order the first four volumes at Amazon. Right Stuf has the series backordered. This same situation is repeated with many, many other titles.
So this year, it may be less about finding the best deals as finding the store with the item in stock — and can deliver it at a reasonable price and speed. Yeah, it may be a little annoying to have to hide a package for a few months or to receive a package in September or October with “Merry Christmas!” or whatever on it, but I’m sure everyone had some aggravation with shopping last holiday season — or even recently, as some people are starting to stockpile again.
For places that charge shipping based on current USPS prices (versus a flat rate which they have negotiated), even if the item is going to be less in price in the upcoming months, that savings may be countered by the higher shipping prices.
Sure, $.30 on First Class or say $.75 for a lot of Priority Mail packages may not seem like a lot, but it especially hurts small businesses and private sellers. An average video game is approximately 4-6 ounces, so normally about $3 to $3.50. But that extra $.30 pushes it closer to the $4 mark. Now pile on all the other people wanting to order and send gifts, and that 2-5 day delivery for First Class could easily be 3-7. And if the situation is anything like last year, tracking can be infrequent, which brings up a lot of concerns of packages being lost, which, again, small businesses and private sellers can’t easily absorb the cost of. So their shipping rates may have to go up even more significantly than the larger retailers.
The larger retailers, however, are more likely to rely on merchandise from China to stock their shelves, so they have their own pricing concerns — not to mention concerns about even getting items to stock their shelves and not have it hanging out in China or California!
There are a lot of variables this holiday season, and shopping is probably going to be a gamble — buy now and perhaps pay more than you would have, or wait and face delays or miss out completely. Good luck to everyone out there, and let’s hope the holiday shopping season doesn’t permanently need to start in September!